In 2014, the proportion of global ethylene projects using naphtha and light diesel as raw materials was 49.6%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points compared with 2013; the proportion of heavy raw materials in the Middle East increased; the proportion of heavy raw materials in Asia was still in a downward trend. It is expected that around 2017, the global ethylene industry will enter the peak of a new round of prosperity cycle. In 2014, 4 new large-scale ethylene plants were put into operation worldwide, with an annual new capacity of 6.4 million tons. Among them, the capacity expansion of ethylene in the United States increased by more than 1.5 million tons per year; 4 coal-to-olefins plants were put into operation in China, adding 1.15 million tons per year of ethylene capacity. It is expected that by 2020, the global share of methanol-to-olefins will reach 20%, of which coal-to-olefins will account for about 16%. The future increase in China's ethylene capacity will mainly rely on coal chemical industry, and the uncertainty of the steam cracking route has increased significantly. Before 2020, China's new ethylene capacity will be dominated by methanol-to-olefins. It is expected that coal-to-olefins will add 5.19 million tons/year of ethylene capacity between 2015 and 2020. By 2020, domestic ethylene capacity is expected to reach 35.6 million tons/year, with an equivalent demand of about 47.6 million tons/year. It is understood that due to the rapid development of methanol-to-olefins plant construction, its share in China will increase rapidly in the future. It is expected that by 2015, the share of methanol-to-olefins will reach 14%, an increase of 9 percentage points compared with 2013, of which coal-to-olefins will account for about 11%.
